A Year: Day to Day Men: 2nd of February
Suit of Gray
February 2nd is Groundhog Day in the United States and Canada.
Groundhog Day is a popular tradition derived from a Pennsylvania Dutch superstition. If a groundhog, emerging from its burrow on this day sees a shadow due to clear weather, It will retreat to its den and winer will persist for six more weeks. If he does not see his shadow, due to cloudiness, spring season will arrive early.
The earliest mention of Groundhog Day is a February 2, 1840 entry in the diary of James Morris of Morgantown, Pennsylvania. Morris was commenting on his neighbors who were of German stock and living in the Pennsylvania Dutch area. The first reported news was made by the ‘Punxsutawney Spirit’ newspaper in 1886: “up to the time of going to press, the beast has not seen its shadow”. The following year a group went to the Gobbler’s Knob part of town to consult the groundhog, making Groundhog Day an official event.
The consulted groundhog these days is Punxsutawney Phil. Phil has predicted 103 forecasts for winter and just 17 for an early spring. As it turns out, Phil’s predictions have been recorded as only 39% accurate according to Stormfax Almanac’s data. It seems as though referring to the city’s official weather services to determine the seasonal changes may be more reliable.
Poor results from analysis are also reported by the Farmers Almanac as “exactly 50 percent” accuracy,: and National Geographic Society reported only 28% success. However, a Middlebury College team found that a long-term analysis of temperature high/low predictions were 70% accurate, although when the groundhog predicted early spring it was usually wrong.